Silver and those Long Cycles

Silver and those Long Cycles By  for TFMR

Every couple of years I refresh the long wave view for precious metals with a big cycle review.

It’s been a few years since I updated the big picture of silver cycles, so here are some new views for readers to pore over and accept, or dismiss, or modify, their implications depending on how convincing they look, or fail to look!

So let’s get started:

Is there a thirty year cycle in the price of silver?

We only have one wave back to consider if there is, so number of comparisons with the present day is limited. that’s unfortunate.

But we can still have a look at the one past wave, and at now, and make tentative conclusions, can’t we?

Since I prefer slightly longer than thirty exactly, and this is my work, I made the necessary fine tuning adjustments. Here is a 31.5 year possible wave:

Some observations about the above chart.

1. That’s a lot of price data history, so it’s a quarterly bar chart.

2. If there is a 31.5 year cycle, the Hunt Brothers top overlaps the recent silver highs, and that’s very interesting to see.

3. For easy reference I redrew the 30 year ago prices on top of today in blue. it makes it easier to compare the two for likeness, or correlation.

4. I put vertical lines in blue and red on. The period of time in-between them encloses the hard part of the bear 30 years ago, and allows a comparison with how long it would be if that were to repeat (or take the same amount of time) this time around.

5. If this wave is a thing – did it flicker into opposite or inverted at the start of 2020 or not? This wouldn’t affect the timing, but the direction looks like this is a possibility.

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Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets". You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at [email protected] If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.