Wall Street’s Back to “Full Bull”

Wall Street’s Back to “Full Bull” BY  for Daily Reckoning

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As the bad penny returns to its sender, as the dog returns to its vomit… Wall Street returns to its bull.

That is, Wall Street is nearing “full bull.”

Thus concludes Bank of America Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett.

We might add a four-letter scatological conclusion to “bull”… yet our harsh Presbyterian standard forbids it.

The latest Fund Manager Survey is out. That is a monthly barometer of roughly 200 fund managers throughout Earth.

And this barometer indicates fair winds and clear skies ahead.

66% of the surveyed believe the global economy is in “early-cycle phase.” That is the highest barometric reading since March 2010.

84% expect an upswing in global growth — the highest percentage in18 years.

73% project a steeper yield curve. That is a record high reading.

In reminder, a steeper yield curve foretells higher growth ahead. A flattened yield curve indicates the opposite.

Greed Is Back

Why precisely is Wall Street nearing “full bull?” BloombergQuint:

The global equity markets rebounded on the back of improving macros, the U.S. election outcome and hopes surrounding a potential Covid-19 vaccine. Cash levels have declined to 4.1% in November from 4.4% in October and 4.8% in September, the survey of a total of 216 panellists with $573 billion assets under management showed. Cash level of less than 4% indicates greed and over 5% fear.

In March… in the razor teeth of the pandemic… CNN’s “Fear and Greed” index had plunged to 2 out of 100 “extreme fear.”

The same index presently reads 72  — “greed.” Any reading above 75 ranges into “extreme greed.”

For investors, the nightmare march through the dark, treacherous valley is over. And the wide, sun-soaked uplands are in eyesight.

“Dow 30,000 is dead ahead!”

Thus an arctic chill freezes our spinal column… and cold sweat streams down our ashen face.

It’s the Good News We Worry About

For as we have noted before: Bad news frightens us — but good news terrifies us.

Too many hopes go up, too many guards go down, too many fools go in, too many “buy, buy, buys” go out.

But when a crowd bunches together, we instinctively quicken step… and beat a course for the exits.

That is because crowds make us vaguely uneasy. Unsettled. Anxious.

This bullish crowd particularly flusters us. For it gathers around the narrative of “improving macros.”

Yet we direct you to the following photographs, taken this prior weekend…

Wall Street Feasts, Main Street Starves

These images depict thousands of automobiles, horizon to horizon, a convoy of the hungry, creeping towards a food bank in Dallas, Texas.

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