The bull market for gold is not over, Goldman Sachs analysts said, and the gold market will likely follow the same path as it did after the global financial crisis in 2008.
In the 13 November note, analysts Mikhail Sprogis and Jeffrey Currie said: “The structural bull market for gold is not over and will resume next year as inflation expectations move higher, the US dollar weakens and EM retail demand continues to recover.”
“Near term, however, it may be difficult for gold to generate a meaningful momentum in either a higher or lower direction,” they added, although they believe the strategic case for gold remains “strong”.
“While the near-term gold price may remain range-bound, our bullish 2021 view is unchanged.” The bank has a target of $2,300 per ounce for gold. Gold on 13 November hovered at about $1,880. That’s a 22% increase.
For 2021, the US bank’s strategists expect 10 year nominal rates to increase next year by 25 basis points to 1.3%, with 5 year nominal rates hiking up by 10 basis points. The medium term gold market will be more focused on the later, because the safe haven commodity is being used as a hedge between currency debasement, which is the lowering of a currency’s value, and equity market risk.
“The bulk of gold purchases which happened this year were made by investors who were more concerned about real purchasing power of the dollar vs losses in their equity portfolios,” Sprogis and Currie wrote.
The analysts also wrote that the gold market is likely to follow the same trajectory as it did after the crash in 2008 financial crisis, meaning that it will “grow strongly into the recovery phase of the business cycle as inflation concerns become central to the forecast”.
“Biden’s election win and vaccine news should continue to push currencies of EM consumers higher as tariff risks are lower, supporting their purchasing power,” Goldman wrote. “At the same time, the gold price in a number of these currencies has already corrected materially and we believe that consumers may be more willing to invest in a positive gold trend.”
A UBS note on 23 October said that local lockdowns and tighter restrictions in Europe will lead to a higher gold price as uncertainty reigned, compounded by the US elections.