Why President Trump should have a huge lead on the night of the election
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Does that headline surprise you? In this article, I am not predicting the eventual outcome of the presidential election. Rather, I am going to discuss what is likely to happen based on which votes will be counted first. Normally, Americans gather around their televisions on the evening of the election to watch the votes come in and the mainstream media declares a winner by the end of the night. But it won’t be that way this time around. More than 52 million Americans have already voted by mail in this election, and that number will keep rising with each passing day. It is going to take extra time to count all of those mail-in ballots, and that is going to cause significant delays in getting final election results from many states.
According to a survey conducted by Pew Research, Trump supporters are more than twice as likely to vote in person on Election Day than Biden supporters are, and Biden supporters are more than twice as likely to vote by mail as Trump supporters are…
Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to say they plan to vote in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%). By contrast, 51% of Biden supporters say they plan to vote by mail or absentee (or have already voted this way). A quarter of Trump supporters (25%) say they plan to vote by mail or absentee.
This will be so important to keep in mind while you are watching coverage of the election on the evening of November 3rd, because the votes that get counted first will determine which candidate is initially leading in each state.
According to Ballotpedia, there are 13 states which allow mail-in ballots to be counted early…
- New Jersey
- North Carolina
And there are another 6 states that “either do not specify when ballot counting can begin or leave the decision to the discretion of local officials”…
In these 19 states, the mail-in ballots and the early in person ballots will be the first votes counted, and those votes will favor Biden.
Yes, it is quite likely that Biden could jump out to large leads in red states like Oklahoma and Utah, but in the end he will not win either of those states.
On the other hand, there are 31 states that do not allow early counting of mail-in ballots. In most of those states, the votes that are cast on Election Day will make up the bulk of the early results, and so the initial vote counts should favor President Trump in those cases.
This group of states includes the critical swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. As I have discussed previously, whoever wins Pennsylvania is probably going to win the election, and so we will want to pay special attention to what is going on there.
According to FiveThirtyEight, about two million mail-in ballots have already been returned in Pennsylvania, and officials will not even begin counting them until 7 AM on Election Day…