Here are 3 reasons why very few experts are trusting the national polls that show Biden with a huge lead over Trump
With just two weeks to go until Election Day in 2016, some national polls showed that Hillary Clinton had a double digit lead over Donald Trump, but those polls turned out to be dead wrong. Will the national polls that show Joe Biden with a huge lead over Trump in 2020 also turn out to be dead wrong? A few days ago, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon made headlines all over the nation when she told supporters “we are not ahead by double digits” and that they should not believe the “inflated national public polling numbers”. Just like so many others, Jen O’Malley Dillon fully understands that most of the big national polls simply cannot be trusted. They are creating a perception that we are likely to see a landslide victory by Biden on Election Day, and the mood in this country is likely to shift dramatically when that perception does not become a reality.
So why are most of the major national polls deeply flawed?
Here are three big reasons…
For some reason, most of the polling organizations that the mainstream media relies upon insist on oversampling Democrats time after time. This is something that the Trump campaign has complained about repeatedly, and yet it just keeps happening.
During a recent appearance on Fox News, Trump’s senior campaign advisor Steve Cortes used the phrase “massive oversampling” to describe what is happening…
Speaking on Fox News’s “Bill Hemmer Reports,” Cortes said, “I think polls matter. We pay some attention to them. It’s very critical to look at the inputs into these polls because the inputs often determine the final output numbers. And many of these polls — I haven’t looked at this one yet specifically, but many of these polls have massive oversampling of Democrats.”
Let’s take a look at one very specific example of this phenomenon. According to Zero Hedge, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that showed Biden with a huge lead represented an “egregious oversampling of Democrats”…
A new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll released on Sunday gave former Vice President Joe Biden a 14-point lead over President Trump, suggesting that “the debate – is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing.”
Another factor having a ‘material effect’ is the poll’s egregious oversampling of Democrats – with 45% of those asked identifying as either “Strong Democrat” , “Not very strong Democrat” , “Independent/lean Democrat” – vs. the 36% of those asked identifying as the same degrees of Republican.
13% of those asked are “Strictly Independent.”
Most surveys that have been done on party affiliation show a very even split, and those numbers have not moved very much at all over the last several years.
So by including far more Democrats than Republicans in their surveys, these pollsters are going to come up with skewed results that are unreliable, and unreliable results are not helpful to anyone.
#2 Shy Trump Voters
Personally, I believe that this is an even bigger factor than oversampling. Pretty much everyone agrees that Biden voters are far more eager to talk to pollsters than Trump voters are, and that makes it very difficult to come up with truly accurate numbers.
In fact, the head pollster for the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, says that his numbers show that Biden voters are “five times as likely to talk to a pollster” as Trump voters are…