Here are 3 reasons why very few experts are trusting the national polls that show Biden with a huge lead over Trump

Here are 3 reasons why very few experts are trusting the national polls that show Biden with a huge lead over Trump by  for The Economic Collapse Blog

With just two weeks to go until Election Day in 2016, some national polls showed that Hillary Clinton had a double digit lead over Donald Trump, but those polls turned out to be dead wrong.  Will the national polls that show Joe Biden with a huge lead over Trump in 2020 also turn out to be dead wrong?  A few days ago, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon made headlines all over the nation when she told supporters “we are not ahead by double digits” and that they should not believe the “inflated national public polling numbers”.  Just like so many others, Jen O’Malley Dillon fully understands that most of the big national polls simply cannot be trusted.  They are creating a perception that we are likely to see a landslide victory by Biden on Election Day, and the mood in this country is likely to shift dramatically when that perception does not become a reality.

So why are most of the major national polls deeply flawed?

Here are three big reasons…

#1 Oversampling

For some reason, most of the polling organizations that the mainstream media relies upon insist on oversampling Democrats time after time.  This is something that the Trump campaign has complained about repeatedly, and yet it just keeps happening.

During a recent appearance on Fox News, Trump’s senior campaign advisor Steve Cortes used the phrase “massive oversampling” to describe what is happening…

Speaking on Fox News’s “Bill Hemmer Reports,” Cortes said, “I think polls matter. We pay some attention to them. It’s very critical to look at the inputs into these polls because the inputs often determine the final output numbers. And many of these polls — I haven’t looked at this one yet specifically, but many of these polls have massive oversampling of Democrats.”

Let’s take a look at one very specific example of this phenomenon.  According to Zero Hedge, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that showed Biden with a huge lead represented an “egregious oversampling of Democrats”…

A new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll released on Sunday gave former Vice President Joe Biden a 14-point lead over President Trump, suggesting that “the debate – is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing.”

Another factor having a ‘material effect’ is the poll’s egregious oversampling of Democrats – with 45% of those asked identifying as either “Strong Democrat” , “Not very strong Democrat” , “Independent/lean Democrat” – vs. the 36% of those asked identifying as the same degrees of Republican.

13% of those asked are “Strictly Independent.”

Most surveys that have been done on party affiliation show a very even split, and those numbers have not moved very much at all over the last several years.

So by including far more Democrats than Republicans in their surveys, these pollsters are going to come up with skewed results that are unreliable, and unreliable results are not helpful to anyone.

#2 Shy Trump Voters

Personally, I believe that this is an even bigger factor than oversampling.  Pretty much everyone agrees that Biden voters are far more eager to talk to pollsters than Trump voters are, and that makes it very difficult to come up with truly accurate numbers.

In fact, the head pollster for the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, says that his numbers show that Biden voters are “five times as likely to talk to a pollster” as Trump voters are…

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Michael Snyder

I am a voice crying out for change in a society that generally seems content to stay asleep.  My name is Michael Snyder and I am the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I have written four books that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters.  (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing those books you help to support my work.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but due to government regulations I can only allow this to happen if this “About the Author” section is included with each article.  In order to comply with those government regulations, I need to tell you that the controversial opinions in this article are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the websites where my work is republished.  This article may contain opinions on political matters, but it is not intended to promote the candidacy of any particular political candidate.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  Those responding to this article by making comments are solely responsible for their viewpoints, and those viewpoints do not necessarily represent the viewpoints of Michael Snyder or the operators of the websites where my work is republished.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.