Counting chickens and avoiding the predators

Counting chickens and avoiding the predators By  for TFMR

I suppose that many of us here have been doing some chicken-counting lately, imagining the “assets” we will move into when we sell at the precise top and reap a windfall of profit. I have certainly done my share and my wife is probably getting tired of hearing about it. And I was feeling good last night until about 8pm when this recent smackdown began. (I heard that monkey’s disguised as bears did the smacking.) And again this morning I was disappointed to see that these monkeys kept at it all night. I checked price again this morning while taking a break from shoveling gravel in the AZ heat. Hmmm… disappointing. So what can we do about it? Perhaps we ought to think and plan a bit as this bullish move climaxes in its cycle.

In spite of Fridays disappointing action, there is no cause for panic. Sitting here at the computer this afternoon, we see that each dip has been met with buyers who pushed price back up faster than the monkeys were able to push it down. Some folks out there are taking the BTFD advice seriously. Moreover, price moves to a new high after each smash.

I’d say that is bullish.

My prediction? The monkeys will continue this little game Sunday night. They have been unable to paint a lower high in over two weeks. But, I also expect the bid for metals to overwhelm the short sellers within a day of any extension of this smash.

Friday’s action brings me back to my chicken-counting. At some point, I want to take my metal gains and purchase a few things: 1) a suitable property to ride out this social change and coming depression. In fact, I’d like to retire and live there the rest of my life. And why not get a couple of good vehicles to replace our old ones—maybe even a backhoe.

Yet, several unknown factors stand between paper profits and realized gains: Pundits from various venues are predicting some serious inflation, along with a very weak dollar—perhaps even a reset. If one closes the metals trade too soon, inflation could bring some sorrow. Metals may be “called in” at a government set price that we won’t like, after which ownership and bartering may be an offense that lands one’s gluteus maximus in jail. And what about capital gains tax? I am very interested to hear more about tax law as applied to asset exchanges. 1031 exchanges are not applicable to metals? But are there other loopholes?

I am sure that I am overlooking 20 or 30 more factors, but the main one is the possibility of an illegal, organized takedown of metals—with anti-metal propaganda, rumors of confiscation, margin hikes, radical short-selling, fake chart prices, delisting of products like USLV, SLV and even GLD and bail-ins of share-holdings. Perhaps they even kill bin-Laden again.

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Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets". You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at [email protected] If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.