How (and When) to Prepare for the NEXT Lockdown
How (and When) to Prepare for the NEXT Lockdown by Daisy Luther for The Organic Prepper
TDC Note – Not sure Daisy frames this question in this manner – When to Prepare for…? Preparation is ongoing – never, ever stops. Everyone should be moving to the next level of preparations from where they currently stand. Time is running out, and food will be running out soon enough. I have never grown food in my life, but that has now changed – next level prepping has commenced.
Back when the New Year rolled around, did you ever expect you’d spend months in lockdown, unable to go eat at a restaurant or visit with friends? 2020 has been full of surprises, but more of the “angry clown with a chainsaw” variety than “here, have some flowers.”
As the time for this lockdown to end draws near, spend some time reflecting on what you learned about preparedness and what you need to do before the next lockdown rolls around. (It’s almost inevitable there’ll be a next lockdown – more on that in a moment.)
There will probably be another wave of COVID-19.
The COVID-19 virus is not just going to vanish magically after we’ve stayed in our homes for a certain number of days. The virus will still be out there when the lockdown is over and people will still get sick from it.
At some point, the dreaded “second wave” will occur. Some experts think this will occur almost immediately after lockdown ends, while others believe there’s a seasonal link and it will strike in the fall. To be perfectly honest, at this point it’s too soon to know. There are a few muffled reports out of China about a possible second wave, but accurate information from China has been impossible to get since the very beginning.
We also don’t know whether the virus confers lasting immunity to those who have had it – some reports suggest there is no immunity while other reports say antibodies in the plasma of those who had it can help treat others fighting the illness.
We have no real data on this and no point of accurate comparison. We don’t know if the second wave will be worse than the first, or milder, or affect fewer people. But just consider it extremely likely that it will happen in some way or another, at some point or another.
When the second wave starts, expect another period of lockdown.
As I mentioned above, there are reports out of China about a previously unaffected city of 10 million people, Harbin, which has just been locked down in the past two weeks. We’re likely to see the effects of opening up several states here in the US over the next couple of weeks – either for better or worse.
If it turns out to be seasonal, the second wave would be most likely to begin in October. And now, health specialists know what to look for so it’s likely the re-emergence will be identified fairly quickly.
Whenever a surge occurs, whether it’s next month or next fall, expect another round of lockdowns. Several experts have said we could be looking at periods of lockdown “until there’s a vaccine.”
In his wildly popular March 19 article in Medium, “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance,” Tomas Pueyo correctly predicted the national lockdown, which he called the hammer, and said it would lead to a new phase, which he called the dance, in which essential parts of the economy could reopen, including some schools and some factories with skeleton crews.
Every epidemiological model envisions something like the dance. Each assumes the virus will blossom every time too many hosts emerge and force another lockdown. Then the cycle repeats. On the models, the curves of rising and falling deaths resemble a row of shark teeth.
Surges are inevitable, the models predict, even when stadiums, churches, theaters, bars and restaurants remain closed, all travelers from abroad are quarantined for 14 days, and domestic travel is tightly restricted to prevent high-intensity areas from reinfecting low-intensity ones.
The tighter the restrictions, experts say, the fewer the deaths and the longer the periods between lockdowns. Most models assume states will eventually do widespread temperature checks, rapid testing and contact tracing, as is routine in Asia. (source)
It’s just like the things mentioned above, however – we’re basing this on models and educated guesses, but we don’t know for sure what will happen or when it will happen. But we’re pretty sure something will happen.