How Long Will the American Covid-19 Lockdown Last? Here’s What the Patterns Suggest
How Long Will the American Covid-19 Lockdown Last? Here’s What the Patterns Suggest by Daisy Luther for The Organic Prepper
(March 29, 2020) From the moment lockdowns and serious social distancing efforts began in the United States, the question on everyone’s mind was, “How long will these lockdowns last?”
And it’s not simple impatience. The cost of Covid-19 continues to come as a brutal assault to families across the country. First, there was the money spent preparing for the likelihood of quarantine, and this was followed, for many, by a loss of income. A shocking 3.3 million people had filed for unemployment by last Thursday, something projected less than a week ago and laughed off by many as fear-mongering. The economic ramifications of this virus are not just short-term – they’re long-term too.
It’s psychological, too. Right now, we’re in this strange period of purgatory in which the situation isn’t that bad for a lot of people – outside of a few hotspots, we aren’t seeing the virus in our own backyards. But the inability to plan for something next summer, next month – even next week – is tough on people who are accustomed to being able to map out things like vacations, summer activities for the kids, heck, even a night at the movies with our partners. There’s a sense of overall discomfort which can only be described as grief as we miss out on goals, milestones, and the day to day lives we enjoyed just a couple of short weeks ago.
We want this to end. Now.
And if we can’t have that, we want to know when. When will this limbo known as lockdown be over?
Unfortunately, we’re just getting started.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about when the lockdowns and shelter in place orders would be handed down in the United States, based on the patterns we were seeing in China and in Italy. It turned out to be extremely accurate, so we can use the same general idea of using patterns to attempt to predict what happens next.
Now, keep in mind, there are all sorts of variables. I hate making “predictions because of this. These aren’t “predictions” in a crystal ball kind of way. This is just an analysis of what has already happened and how a pattern is developing. So, my disclaimer is, given the vast array of variables, some of which we’ve probably never even considered, these dates may be entirely wrong. But right now, patterns are all we have to give us an idea of what to expect.
Some of the variables that could come into play are the severity of the lockdown, the population density of the infection hotspots, a surge of civil unrest, a concurrent disaster, and/or the medical systems in the different countries involved. China is a lot more authoritarian than the US and Italy, and they incorporated shocking measures like literally welding people into their apartments.
While things started off rather gently in Italy and the United States, don’t expect it to stay that way.
Italy started off less strictly but has increasingly become tougher on citizens as the cases explode, and we’re seeing harsher measures being instituted across the United States as governors take steps to protect their less-infected states from those fleeing hotspots.
Expect this to continue up to and including martial law if people don’t cooperate with social distancing measures. I’m not saying that this is a good thing or a bad thing – I’m just pointing out that this is reality. If you don’t believe it, read this article about how the cops in Rhode Island are teaming up with the National Guard to go door to door looking for New Yorkers who have fled the city. Right here in the United States of America, boys and girls.
Don’t delude yourself into thinking we’re protected by the Constitution right now. While that should always be the case, know that right now, we’re not.
For the purposes of this article, here are some definitions that I’m using.
- Lockdown: Periods of time with the restriction of movement, closure of businesses, quarantines, and curfews mandated by federal or local governments with varying degrees of enforcement,
- Peak: The plateau in which the number of cases was high somewhat uniformly. Also known as “flattening the curve.”
- Spike: A brief period during which the number of cases skyrocketed, then returned to the peak.
- Decline: The period of time when the number of new cases began to drop steadily from the peak period.