1937 BY for Northman Trader
We’ve talked about the year 2000 comparison (Party like it’s 1999). In 2020 markets went onto a similar structural tear just having rammed relentlessly higher. In 2000 markets famously topped in March following the Fed’s Y2K inspired liquidity injections in 1999 as markets had vastly disconnected from fundamental reality. Now that the truth is out we also know that markets are now vastly disconnected from fundamentals.
And the 2000 comparisons still hold water on a number of measures, price to sales, price to ebitda, market cap to GDP and of course relative weightings in favor of the few as the rally continues to narrow.
The top 2 stocks now have gone complete vertical especially as it relates to their weighting in the S&P:
This chart from Carter Worth on Fast Money last night and even he pointed out how in the lead up to the 2000 top there was some back and forth, but not here, just completely uninterrupted vertical.
One of the 2 stocks being Microsoft, a stock that now has nearly doubled since 2019 with a market cap expansion of over $700 billion for a total market cap of over $1.4 trillion. Historic.
And add the top 4 and their market caps you get this same vertical picture:
— Dan Nathan (@RiskReversal) February 7, 2020
Everything screams reversion and correction, but nothing. The market just keeps going up and they keep buying the big cap tech stocks. Risk free. Or so it seems.
And given the large weightings of these few stocks $NDX just keeps ramping up vertically as well, also far outside the monthly Bollinger band:
So yes, one can make year 2000 comparisons on some specific measures and market behavior.
In 2000 we had a top in March. One may consider that to be a sample size of N1, an outlier statistic, but it isn’t. Markets have seen this before.