Dollar Weakness Could Be the Catalyst Commodities Are Looking For
Dollar Weakness Could Be the Catalyst Commodities Are Looking For By: Frank E. Holmes, Chairman/CEO/CIO of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., via Gold Seek
Near the start of every year, I share our ever-popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, now updated to reflect the final results of 2019. To view the interactive table and download a copy of your own, click here.
Commodities as a whole had a mostly positive 2019, returning 16.53 percent as measured by the S&P GSCI. This far surpasses commodities’ five-year average return of about negative 11.52 percent, between 2014 and 2018.
Precious metals were responsible for much of the growth. For the third straight year, and for the fourth time in six years, palladium was the top-performing commodity. The metal, used widely in the production of catalytic converters, increased an incredible 54.21 percent to end 2019 at $1,912 an ounce, a slightly higher price than gold’s all-time high set in September 2011.
As was the case in past years, palladium benefited from mounting global demand to curb emissions from gasoline-burning engines. It’s also among the world’s scarcest precious metals, mined primarily in Russia and South Africa, which means supply will potentially remain in deficit for years to come.
Having broken above $2,000 an ounce last week, palladium in now forecast by Citi analysts to hit $2,500 by the middle of this year.
Gold Price Up in Four out of Every Five Years
Gold, meanwhile, had its best year since 2010, climbing as much as 18.31 percent. The yellow metal’s role as an exceptional store of value shined brightly in the second half of the year when the pool of negative-yielding debt around the world began to skyrocket, eventually topping out at around $17 trillion in August. On the news last week that Iran launched a counterstrike against U.S.-occupied military bases in Iraq, the safe haven briefly broke above $1,600 an ounce for the first time since April 2013.
In the past two decades, gold has helped investors limit market volatility and portfolio losses. Between 2000 and 2019, the precious metal’s average annual price was down in only four years. Put another way, gold was up on average in four out of every five years—a remarkable track record.
Safe haven-seeking investors around the world piled into gold-backed ETFs in 2019, making it the best year on record for gold holdings. Assets under management (AUM) in gold bullion ETFs expanded 37 percent from the previous year, adding $19.2 billion, or 400 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). During the fourth quarter, total holdings hit a jaw-dropping 2,900 tonnes, the equivalent of 102 million ounces, which is the most on record.
As of the end of last week, gold looked slightly overbought on a relative strength basis, meaning a correction wouldn’t be such a bad thing and in fact expected.
Has the Greenback Peaked?
Short of escalating tensions in the Middle East or a pullback in stocks, the catalyst for higher gold prices—and, indeed, commodity prices in general—may very well be a substantial weakening of the U.S. dollar. On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar Index experienced a “death cross,” a bearish signal that takes places when an asset’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. We haven’t seen this from the greenback since May 2017.
Other firms and analysts have recently made the case that the dollar is ready to decline in 2020, which would give gold and other hard assets the room to gain momentum. Below are just three such forecasts from the past couple of weeks: