Evidence That The U.S. Economy Could Be Plunging Into A Very Deep Recession Is Rapidly Mounting
Evidence That The U.S. Economy Could Be Plunging Into A Very Deep Recession Is Rapidly Mounting by Michael Snyder for The Economic Collapse
Not since 2008 have we seen so much bad economic data come rolling in all at the same time. Even without a war with Iran, which by the way is looking increasingly likely with each passing day, it definitely appears that the U.S. economy is steamrolling toward recession territory. The employment numbers for last month were abysmal, global trade has collapsed to the lowest level that we have seen since the last recession, and manufacturing numbers just keep getting worse and worse. In fact, the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index just suffered the worst one month decline in history…
The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index took a sharp turn for the worse in June, falling into negative territory for the first time in more than two years.
The Empire State manufacturing index plummeted 26.4 points to negative 8.6 in June, the New York Fed said Monday. That’s a record decline. Economists had expected a reading of positive 10, according to a survey by Econoday.
Not even during the last recession did we witness a plunge of that magnitude.
And other measures of U.S. manufacturing activity are also “sinking steadily”…
And it’s not the only indicator showing a turn for the worse: Others, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, have also been sinking steadily.
When you step back and look at the big picture, it becomes quite clear what is happening.
At this point, it is simply not possible for anyone to credibly claim that the U.S. economy is still in good shape. All of the numbers are pointing in the same direction, and Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson made this point exceedingly well on Monday…
Decelerations and disappointments are mounting:
- Cass Freight Index
- Retailer earnings
- Durable goods orders
- Capital spending
- May payrolls
- Semiconductor inventories
- Oil demand
- Restaurant performance indices…
and our own Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI). Looking at the MSBCI in particular, the headline metric showed the biggest one-month drop in its history going back to 2002 and very close to its lowest absolute reading since December 2008.
This index has a tight relationship with ISM new orders and analyst earnings revisions breadth. Our analysis shows downside risk to ISM new orders (25% y/y), S&P earnings revisions breadth (6-13%) and the S&P 500 y/y (8%) if historical links hold.
For much more on the collapse of the MSBCI, please see my previous article entitled “Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index Just Suffered The Biggest One Month Decline In History”.
Many analysts are pointing out that our economic problems really seemed to start accelerating once trade negotiations with China completely broke down, and this is true.