Gold Turns Bullish On Major China Bump

Gold Turns Bullish On Major China Bump By Charles Benavidez for Safehaven

The Bank of China increased it gold holdings in December for the first time since the third quarter of 2016 in major bullish news for gold bugs who are already foaming at the mouth over trade war fears, equities upsets and speculation of a pause in Fed rate hikes.

The rally is definitely on, with spot gold prices enjoying their strongest month in some two years:

(Click to enlarge)

Source: MoneyMetals.com

The People’s Bank of China increased gold holdings to 59.56 million ounces as of 31 December 2018. That’s up from 59.24 million ounces, where the holding had languished for over two years.

Speaking to Bloomberg, Macquarie Group Ltd (London) commodities strategist Matthew Turner said the Bank of China announcement was “a bullish sign for gold”. But no one is entirely sure why they made the move.

“The reasons could be diversification, a wish to get away from the dollar, but it’s hard to be certain because we just don’t know enough about what their motivations are,” Turner said.

But one development that could dull the shine for gold bugs is demand coming out of India.

Reports have now emerged that last year saw India’s gold imports decline by one-fifth as buyers cut down because of high domestic prices and data shows that local stores are still well-stocked.

Citing an unnamed source “familiar with the data”, Bloomberg noted that 2018 saw India’s gold purchases drop 20 percent from the previous year, falling to 762 metric tons. The news agency also noted, citing the same source, that December saw India’s gold imports drop by 23 percent from a year earlier, to 60 tons.

Analysts blame the slumping rupee for the soaring gold prices on the India market, with a liquidity crunch furthering that slump.

“The trend has been weak as far as [Indian] demand is concerned,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, a director at Commtrendz Risk Management Services Pvt. Ltd., told Bloomberg.

Indian demand, though, isn’t enough to derail gold bugs, who have seen gold prices push higher amid a U.S. dollar index sell-off.

According to Kitco, both gold and silver are being boosted by a drop in the U.S. dollar index, which hit a 2.5-month low on January 9.

On January 10, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.7 percent at 95.256.

And now everyone’s watching the Fed.

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At some point in your life you will want to, or be forced to consider an investment program. The main criteria in choosing one that is right for you is summed up in three words "Preservation of Capital". Sounds pretty simple doesn't it? Remember, "Investing is not Saving"! The mainstream media would lead us to believe otherwise and seldom comment on the risks inherent in equity ownership or debt investments. They are quick to point out the positive aspects of every news event with prepared soundbites of information. They provide simple, continual commentary on the respective markets to show they are up to date with the latest developments. They don't comment on developing trends until the trend is obvious to everyone; acting as cheerleaders for the greatest bull market of the twentieth century. A cautious and more reasoned approach is needed.