China’s Startup Bubble Runs Aground

China’s Startup Bubble Runs Aground by Wolf Richter – Wolf Street

Bike-share companies, among the hottest startups, are wiping out investors.

“It now appears bike sharing is the stupidest business, but the smartest brains of China all tried to get in,” Wu Shenghua, founder of 3Vbike, one of the many collapsed bike-sharing companies in China, told Reuters. “It really now seems ridiculous.”

Afterwards, a lot of the ingenious must-not-question stuff that happened during a bubble is considered “ridiculous.”

Bike-sharing companies are just an example. With their capital-intensive, cash-burning, ride-subsidizing business model, they were, in their short lifespan, among the hottest startups in China. They’ve attracted $2 billion in venture funding in 18 months of frenzy leading into 2017. Over 40 platforms mushroomed out of the ground.

This now collapsed bike-sharing craze was based on the idea that you could survive and thrive by lending out bikes below cost, and even for free, as long as you could make it up with volume.

Mobike and Ofo kicked off the frenzy and at one point carved up 95% of the market. Their bikes are everywhere in China, and they expanded into international markets.

Mobike was acquired for over $2 billion in April by Meituan Dianping, a money-losing food-delivery startup, partially owned by China’s internet giant Tencent. Meituan went public in September in Hong Kong, in a hugely ballyhooed IPO that raised $4.2 billion. Tencent subsequently reported a $1.3-billion gain from the IPO. The buying public was not so fortunate: Meituan’s shares have since plunged 37%. But given how much money it has raised in the IPO, it has enough cash to burn for a while, and it gets to live another day.

This may not be the case with Ofo. It too had a “valuation” of $2 billion. At its peak, it had operations in 20 countries, including the US. But like other bike-share companies before it, Ofo is now in the process of collapsing.

It has already shut down its operations in a number of countries, including the US.

In a recent letter to employees, CEO Dai Wei admitted that Ofo was struggling to deal with a cash shortage, in part because millions of frustrated users were demanding refunds and in part because suppliers were demanding to get paid. He said Ofo was battling on amid “pain and hopelessness.”

Among the problems:

  • Suppliers have been left unpaid.
  • A court in Beijing has placed CEO Dai on a credit blacklist.
  • Ofo has tried to sell its assets, which are mostly beaten-up bikes but gets very little for them — as little as $2 per bike.
  • Bikes are left behind broken, useless, and worthless.
  • Over 12 million users have asked online to be refunded their up-front deposits and passes. Others are clamoring for refunds at its offices in Beijing.

One of the people standing in line to get a refund was Jiang Zhe, a university student in Beijing, who told Reuters that he usually bought a month pass, but added, “I haven’t used Ofo recently because I can’t find any working bikes.”

The spooked transportation ministry said it had asked Ofo to optimize its refund procedure. It also urged the public to be more “tolerant” to allow domestic innovation to thrive.

“It would be tough for the company to get back to its golden days,” a former Ofo executive who asked not to be named told Reuters. “I think most people are really just waiting for the final days.”

The blow-up of the barely nascent industry started over a year ago

In June 2017, the first bike-share outfit toppled: Wukong Bike, which had been founded only six months earlier, took user deposits and VC funds with it. The company operated 1,200 bikes in the city of Chongqing. Initially, it charged users a tiny fee, later all rides were free. Most of the bikes disappeared because they didn’t have a GPS tracking device.

In November 2017, Bluegogo, China’s third largest bike-share outfit, collapsed. It had raised $90 million in venture capital, including $58 million in February 2017. It expanded internationally. In January 2017, it set up operations in San Francisco but shut them down in March 2017. By November 2017, it had burned through its cash, and no new investors were willing to throw more cash at it. That was the end.

Also in November 2017, Mingbike, which had raised $15 million from VC firms and with operations in major Chinese cities, collapsed and user deposits to evaporated.

And that was the beginning of the end of the craze.

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Wolf Richter

In his cynical, tongue-in-cheek manner, he muses on WOLF STREET about economic, business, and financial issues, Wall Street shenanigans, complex entanglements, and other things, debacles, and opportunities that catch his eye in the US, Europe, Japan, and occasionally China. WOLF STREET is the successor to his first platform… TP-Title-7-small-200px …whose ghastly name he finally abandoned in July 2014. Here’s the story on that. Wolf lives in San Francisco. He has over twenty years of C-level operations experience, including turnarounds and a VC-funded startup. He earned his BA and MBA in Texas and his MA in Oklahoma, worked in both states for years, including a decade as General Manager and COO of a large Ford dealership and its subsidiaries. But one day, he quit and went to France for seven weeks to open himself up to new possibilities, which degenerated into a life-altering three-year journey across 100 countries on all continents, much of it overland. And it almost swallowed him up.