It’s possible the decline has already begun. . .
It’s possible the decline has already begun. . . by Simon Black – Sovereign Man
October can be an unforgiving month.
The terrible stock market crash that signaled the beginning of the Great Depression was in October of 1929.
The stock market crash known as Black Monday was in October of 1987.
In 1997, the Asian financial crisis sparked another stock market crash in… you guessed it—October.
And back in 2007 at the height of the giant bubble that almost brought down the entire financial system, the stock market peaked once again in… October.
It’s not that October is particular cursed. Maybe it’s just a coincidence. But I do find it strangely ominous that asset prices seemed to have peaked last month (October) and have been in decline ever since.
Real estate prices are starting to show signs of strain; more than one-third of homes for sale had a large price cut in October– the most discounting in the past eight years.
Corporate and government bonds are falling.
The S&P 500 is down 7%, and the big popular technology stocks that have been fueling the boom in stock prices for the past several years have been violently declining.
Facebook is down 36% from its peak. Apple is down 18% (and down more today on news of production cuts for iPhones). Semiconductor giant NVIDIA is down 45%.
Oh, it’s not just in the US either.
Deutsche Bank says 89% of all asset classes it tracks are negative this year – the worst year since 1901.
This is often how a big downturn begins: gradually, then suddenly. Asset prices stew and fester, slowly grinding downward for months while people maintain hope that prices will recover.
I remember spending time in Florida back in 2007 when property prices had already started declining.
All the real estate agents I met kept telling themselves ridiculous affirmations about how the market was going to come roaring back soon, and the good times would return.