Blundering Into Recession
Blundering Into Recession by Jim Rickards – Daily Reckoning
June 12 is just three weeks away.
That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC, the Fed’s interest rate policy arm, will in all likelihood raise interest rates another 0.25%, the seventh such rate increase since the “liftoff” in interest rates in December 2015.
The market is currently putting the odds of a rate hike at 95%.
This is the most aggressive tempo of rate hikes of any major central bank and puts U.S. policy rates significantly higher than those in the U.K., Japan or eurozone.
The issue for investors is whether the Fed is raising rates too aggressively considering the strength of the U.S. economy. Higher rates imply a stronger dollar, imported deflation and head winds to growth.
If the U.S. economy is on a firm footing, then the rate hikes may be appropriate, even necessary to head off inflation.
But if the U.S. economy is vulnerable, then the Fed’s actions could trigger a recession and stock market sell-off unless the Fed reverses course quickly.
My view is that the latter is more likely.
The Fed is tightening into weakness and will reverse course by pausing rate hikes later this year.
When that happens, important trends in stocks, bonds, currencies and gold will be thrown into reverse.
Outwardly, the Fed is sanguine about the prospects for monetary normalization. Both Janet Yellen and new Fed chair Jay Powell have said that interest rate hikes will be steady and gradual.
In practice, this means four rate hikes per year, 0.25% each, every March, June, September and December, with occasional pauses prompted by strong signs of disinflation, disorderly markets or diminution in job creation.
Lately job creation has been strong. And inflation has picked up. But it’s been spotty. The Fed still faces head winds in achieving its inflation goal.
The Fed is targeting a 2% annual inflation rate as measured by an index called PCE core year over year, reported monthly (with a one-month lag) by the Commerce Department.
That inflation index has not cooperated with the Fed’s wishes, and despite recent gains, hasn’t been able to hold consistently above 2%.
This has been a persistent trend and should be troubling to the Fed as it contemplates its next policy move at the FOMC meeting on June 12-13.
I’ve warned repeatedly that the Fed is tightening into weakness. The Atlanta Fed is projecting a 4.1% growth rate for the second quarter. But it’s known for its rosy projections that are almost always revised downwards once the data come in,
It had to lower its estimate of first quarter growth from over 5% to 1.8%. You can pretty much bet they’ll have to significantly reduce this projection as well.
The economy has been trapped in this low-growth cycle for years. The current economic recovery shows none of the 3% to 4% growth that previous recoveries have shown.
Meanwhile, the Fed is plowing ahead with its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), or cutting into its balance sheet.
Balance sheet normalization is even more on autopilot than rate hikes. Now, the Fed will not dump its securities holdings. Instead, it refrains from rolling over maturing securities. When the Treasury pays the Fed upon the maturity of a Treasury note, the money simply disappears.
This is the opposite of money printing — it’s money destruction. Instead of QE, we now have QT, or quantitative tightening. It’s like the Fed is burning money.
The Fed has been transparent about the rate at which they will run off their balance sheet this way, although transparency should not lead investors to complacency.