Why even a trade war won’t derail Made in China 2025
Why even a trade war won’t derail Made in China 2025 by Pepe Escobar – The Saker
Designed to calm down fears of an ominous US-China trade war, President Xi Jinping’s speech at the Boao Forum, crammed with Chinese metaphors, was the logical extension of his landmark address to Davos early last year – when he established China at the vanguard of globalization 2.0.
At the Boao Forum, Xi stressed a “new phase of opening up” the Chinese economy; blasted a “cold war and zero-sum mentality”; and praised China’s long economic development march – from WTO membership to the foremost trade/connectivity 21st century Eurasia integration project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
For the near future, the Chinese economy would have to follow one of two main vectors. Beijing might choose to open its economy mostly to US multinational corporations; a strategy privileging the West. That would be China’s Plan B. Or, roughly throughout the next seven years, Beijing may stage yet another breakthrough, solidifying itself as a high-tech Mecca. That’s China’s Plan A.
Plan A happens to be totally integrated with the BRI connectivity drive – from Eastern China to Western Europe via Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Southwest Asia and even the Caucasus. China, via BRI, aims to export not only capital and business savvy but also value-added high tech products.
And that brings us to the clash between two roadmaps – which should be read in detail – that are at the heart of a much debated, possible and certainly vicious trade war; China 2030 and Made in China: 2025.
2030 or 2025?
China 2030 was published, significantly, way back in 2013, by the World Bank in conjunction with the Chinese Finance Ministry and State Council. It’s still a product of the Hu Jintao era, calling for all the requisite “market reforms,” with emphasis on the “need” for China’s strategy “to be governed by a few key principles: open markets, fairness and equity, mutually beneficial cooperation, global inclusiveness and sustainable development.”
Xi Jinping, though, had broader ideas. Expanding on a concept initially floated by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, at first named One Belt, One Road (OBOR), were also unveiled in 2013, in Astana and Jakarta. It took a while for the news to sink in that OBOR was nothing less than a full blueprint for pan-Eurasia integration.
Then, in 2015, Beijing unveiled what is the de facto national economic strategy: Made in China: 2025.
This is all about China – once again – stepping on the gas, this time to reduce dependency on foreign technology and the role of assembly line for foreign companies, by increasing investment in research and development; improving automation in Chinese factories; and developing strategic sectors such as robotics.
There’s already a 2020 target; arrive at 70% of production with Chinese-made components. The manner that the success of Huawei ruffled so many feathers in the US – the home of Apple – is just a small illustration of what may lie ahead.
Yet Made in China: 2025 is way more ambitious, aiming to propel the Middle Kingdom to the Top Three of global high-tech industry leaders before 2049 – when the People’s Republic turns 100. That’s how China plans to beat the middle-income trap.
So Beijing has drawn its own, indigenous roadmap towards becoming a state of the art high-tech “manufacturing superpower” exporting made in China high-speed rail, aircraft, electric vehicles, robotics, AI technologies and the 5G standards that will power the Internet of Things.
Previous economic role models certainly include South Korea – whose process of gradual chaebol modernization was state-guided. And crucial inspiration is also drawn from Industrie 4.0, the German national strategic initiative launched in 2011 aiming to consolidate the nation’s technological leadership in mechanical engineering.
Europe is watching
The fact that Beijing won’t accept a subservient role in a US-dominated high-tech economic environment run by a tiny corporate elite spells out what’s unimaginable for this elite; a definitive swing of the world economy by 2025, from the West to the East.
Beijing won’t back down. The whole drive is away from the unilateral moment towards a multipolar world – where the partnership with Russia plays a key role, as they coordinate their efforts on everything from the yuan and the ruble backed by gold to an alternative to the SWIFT payment mechanism, culminating with the most far-reaching project in world history in terms of economic connectivity across more than 60 nations and cultures; BRI – which is bound to be integrated with the Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) – happens to be, essentially, a concerted, state-guided industrial policy.