Doug Casey’s Top Eight Speculations for Right Now
Doug Casey’s Top Eight Speculations for Right Now by Doug Casey – International Man
It’s a good idea to keep the Big Picture in mind, even while going about business as usual. Here’s a very brief overview, going from 30,000 feet right down into the trenches.
My view of the economy has always been long term—perhaps overly so. The Ascent of Man started about 14,000 years ago at the end of the last Ice Age; it’s going to continue for two reasons: First, not only have science and technology been compounding at an accelerating rate since Day One. But there are now more scientists and engineers alive than have lived in all previous history combined. That will likely remain true for some time to come. Second, much like a squirrel that knows winter is coming, the average human is genetically programmed to produce more than he consumes and tries to save the difference. That builds capital. So the world naturally tends to get richer.
Meanwhile, the biotech revolution—just one of a half-dozen areas where technology is advancing at the rate of Moore’s Law—may allow you to live a very long time. Things look very rosy on some fronts.
On the other hand, Western Civilization has been in decline since about 1913, and its descent is accelerating. The US peaked relative to other countries in the mid-‘50s, started declining in the early ‘70s, and is now moving into an existential crisis. So maybe the long term isn’t so rosy after all. The rising tides that have floated all ships for the past few centuries appear to be going out.
Even though that’s the case, and Western Civilization is sinking, we’re in a financial bubble of historic proportions. Far bigger than the bubble that burst in 1929. And because every State in the world is vastly more powerful than it was in those days, and the public has learned to demand far more from them, the Greater Depression will be far worse, far different, and far longer lasting than the unpleasantness of 1929-1946.