Gold & Silver Still Holding Strong – Sales of AGE’s and ASE’s Not So Much
Gold & Silver Still Holding Strong – Sales of AGE’s and ASE’s Not So Much by Rory – The Daily Coin
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The Federal Reserve Note (FRN) is down 10.25% year to date and this explains why gold continues to move higher. Gold is enemy of the FRN and as the FRN weakens gold strengthens. As of this writing the FRN sits at 91.92 and appears to be headed for higher ground.
Silver is moving higher with a nice upside move on Monday August 28 close to 0.40$. Silver and gold should continue moving higher, but there is always the chance (probability) the bullion banks will step in and ruin the party – that’s what they do.
It’s a busy week with more news coming today from the Jackson Hole Gang and with Draghi stating yesterday the ECB’s policies were working and the economy was improving it will be interesting to hear todays words of wisdom from the Gang in the Hole. If the Euro Zone is improving why are so many nation states in such a mess?
The Consumer Confidence Index is showing approximately a 5% point gap in what the “experts” believe and what the people believe to be on the horizon for business over the next 6 months.
There appears to be a decline in the coming months of new car and home sales. It seems, for the moment, no one is buying into the “strong economy” meme that has dominated the fake news venues for the past – forever timeframe.
Personally, I’m grateful to be able to report some good news on the metals on back-to-back days. Now if gold and silver can hold they should be able to push higher through Fall.
Gold is garnering zero support from the sales of American Gold Eagles (AGE) as the number of 1/2 ounce AGE’s sold during August is holding steady at 2,000 coins or 1,000/ounces. American Silver Eagles (ASE) sales are continuing there slide into the abyss with a mere 725,000/ounces/coins sold as of August 29.
UPDATE: As of September 1, August sales should be officially closed, we find the US Mint sold a total 1,025,000 ASE’s which is almost 50% month over month and when you look at year over year – 2016 1,280,000 we see the same, not as severe, downward trend. Investors have not returned to the ASE program as of today.
As a matter of fact ASE sales are absolutely terrible for the year with only 15,278,500 total coins/ounces reaching the wholesalers. It would appear ASE’s will not reach one million sold in the month of August which reinforces the current trend. ASE sales are so bad you have to go back to pre economic meltdown, 2007, to find lower ASE sales than 2017. This could change, but it will take a lot of unforeseen sales to beat the 2008 sales of 20,583,000 ounces/coins sold.
ASE sales were pretty steady from 1986 to 2005. Sales were constantly growing but no big swings in the numbers. The average for almost 20 years would be approximately 5.5 – 6 million ASE ounces/coins sold for the year. There are two outliers in 1987 11,442,335 were sold and in 2006 10,676,522 were sold. Outside of these two years ASE sales ranged between 4.5 and 7.5 million ounces/coins sold per annum.
Beginning in 2008 we began seeing a serious change in the ASE market. New all time record sales were being made year after year after year. In 2008 ASE sales jumped to 20,583,000 ounces/coins sold. This was a massive departure from the 9,028,036 ounces/coins sold just the year before.
The absolute all time record sales high, thus far, was set in 2015 with a total of 47,000,000 ounces/coins sold into the wholesalers. Comparing 2017 to 2015 we see close to a 70% (estimated for year end) drop in sales. If the current pace of ASE sales continues there will be a close to a 60% drop compared to 2016 when a 37,701,500 ounces/coins were sold to the wholesalers. Even if ASE sales begin breaching 1 million ounces/coins sold to wholesalers each of the remaining 4 months, Sept-Dec, that would be approximately a 45% decline year-over-year. What hurts even more is the sales are not weak enough to create a “key date” year for ASE’s. The drop in sales of both AGE’s and ASE’s is a direct reflection of the economy falling apart and people placing bets in the crypto space.