Wild French Polls: Spread Between Top Four Candidates Shrinks to 4 Percentage Points

Wild French Polls: Spread Between Top Four Candidates Shrinks to 4 Percentage Points by Mike Shedlock – Mish Talk

The maximum spread between the top four candidates in the latest French poll is down to a mere four percentage points!

Turnout makes matters even more difficult to assess. Abstain is in a three-way tie for the most votes at 23%. In the second most recent poll, abstain has 35% of the vote and leads Le Pen by 10.5 percentage points.

Given how wildly off base election polls have been this year, it’s safe to use the words “completely unpredictable” heading into the first round of votes on April 23.

On April 4, all 11 candidates squared off in what is best described as a free-for-all. Eurointelligence offered some interesting comments.

There will be no third TV debate ahead of the first round of the French elections. No time and no appetite. The truth is no one wants another surreal scene like the last one. It had all the hallmarks of a reality show rather than a serious political debate. The six small candidates had a field day, and made the big candidates squirm. Candidates promised the sky, and showed no modesty or restraint. And Jean-Luc Mélenchon all of a sudden appeared moderate, and it is no surprise that he got the most attention on social media.

Thanks to the smaller candidates, Le Pen lost her reputation of being the only radical candidate, writes Françoise Fressoz. About Frexit for example. François Asselineau, credited with 0.5% of the votes, promised to trigger Article 50 if elected. Le Pen’s promise to give herself six months to negotiate with Brussels looks lukewarm by comparison. Asselineau called it a bluff and that she would not get France out of the euro.

Macron’s success relies on the idea that he can get into the second round, and that he will then get all the votes from the left and right to avoid Le Pen. But what if this is not the scenario that will emerge from the first round?

Fresh Polls

I held off on posting that waiting for some polls taken entirely after the debate. Let’s take a look.

Six Possibilities 

  1. Macron – Le Pen
  2. Macron – Fillon
  3. Macron – Mélenchon
  4. Le Pen – Fillon
  5. Le Pen – Mélenchon
  6. Fillon – Mélenchon

Ignoring the order, those are the final pairing possibilities. #1 is the most likely and #6 the least likely, but I struggle to put a definitive order to the rest of the pairings.

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