Bingo: BLS Pads Employment Report With Birth/Death Plug – SPX Melts Up
by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics
Update: MELT-UP EXTRAORDINAIRE. Dow up 242 points; SPX up 24 points. All on a phony number and big downward revision to last month’s phony number.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, armed with the highly unreliable Census Bureau employment data sample (you, the Taxpayer pay for the this tragicomedy), released its extraordinarily overanalyzed and extraordinarily useless non-farm payroll report today. According to Bloomberg, the Wall St. brain trust consensus estimate was for 220k jobs “added” to the economy. The “actual” reported number was 223k.
As predicted, the S&P 500 melted up – click to enlarge:
Of course, the hedge fund algos completely ignored the unexpectedly bad number of 126k for March was revised lower to an atrociously horrific 85k. This is by design, people. Hedge fund computers only care about a headline report. The revision does not make the headlines.
As further predicted by my friend and colleague, Mark Kellstrom of Strategic Energy Research, the BLS used its fictitiously calculated “Birth/Death Model” plug metric to pad today’s report with 213,000 “fairytale” jobs. We wrote about this here: LINK. You can verify this here: LINK – I’m not making this stuff up – I’m not sure Lewis Carroll could have made this up…
The only incorrect prediction was that it was not a huge beat of expectations. However, it was a huge beat of the “whisper” number, given the poor ADP Payroll report. I did suggest in a post earlier this week that the ADP report was intentionally managed lower to set up today’s “surprise” and help the Fed stimulate a hedge fund algo SPX melt-up.
Of course, the BLS and it’s mentally challenged Census Bureau lap-dog want us to believe that the unemployment rate is only 5.4%. I guess this could be true if you want to completely ignore the 93.1 million of the working age population that is not considered to be part of the labor force. Of course, according John Williams, who looks at how the Government calculated the unemployment rate in 1990 vs. now, the true unemployment rate is more like 23%.
Naturally, if you don’t like something, just ignore it. The BLS has determined that only 3,000 energy sector jobs were lost in April. Hmmm…that one has me scratching my head. Especially after you look at this chart produced by Zerohedge yesterday: LINK. Retail was given credit with producing 12.1k jobs during April. That is patently absurd given that we know the retail sector is closing down at least 6,000 stores nationwide over the next 18 months.
It just doesn’t get any more absurd than this. It just goes to show: “There’s no B.S. Like The BLS.”