The Fog of War

by Silver Sooner, TFMetals Report


War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.

Carl von Clausewitz

Vault subscribers know that I’ve been writing about events in the Ukraine for a while now.  I’ve also been doing a lot of digging and reading, trying to make sense of exactly what’s going on there as well as what’s happening between the U.S. and Russia.  I’ve found a lot of things that are worthy of your consideration, regardless what you already think about the war in Ukraine or which side you feel is morally “right”.  None of this is inside knowledge–anyone can find this information if they ask the right questions and look in the right places.  Neither are these things some crazy conspiracy theory which requires huge leaps of the imagination.  And so, based on a suggestion by JY896, Turd has graciously allowed me the opportunity to present these things in a semi-regular blog format for the consideration and discussion for all of Turdville.

This is also the umpteenth time I’ve tried to write this article.  The problem is, that the full magnitude of what is happening is too big–too sophisticated–to cover in one, brief article.  As I’ve joked before, it’s a VERY big rabbit hole.  To say that I’ve agonized as to what and how to present these things would be a gross understatement. There’s also the delicate matter the conflict’s nature.  This is because we are in the middle of a very real information and psychological war between two of the world’s largest powers.  And as I understand the conflict, BOTH sides view the war as an existential struggle–and both sides are playing deceptively and unethically.

Please understand that a large-scale, well-organized information war has no clearly-delineated battlefields and the targets in such a war are the hearts and minds of everyone on the planet.  The world has never seen this type of warfare–on this scale–with these technological resources.  In this type of war, words and ideas are the new bombs and bullets and can be more effective than a hundred laser-guided bombs delivered perfectly to their targets.  Traditional, alternate, and social media become the territories where battles are fought and attacks are launched.  Counterfeit realities and their development in popularly-accepted memes are the new “campaigns.”  Both sides employ counter-measures against attacks which results in twisted, half-truths and partial realities that take on lifes of their own.  Thus, it’s critically important that you take great care in discussing the war, the attacks, the strategies, lest you become a proxy fighter who unwittingly furthers one side or the other’s objectives.

Again, both sides are already engaged in this new war.  As an example from the “innocent” Russian side, consider the following quote from one of the most popular Pro-Russian/Novorussian bloggers, “Colonel Cassad” (a.k.a. Boris Rozhin): 

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