German repatriation – trainspotters only
by Bron Suchecki, Gold Chat Quite busy at the moment with a few projects deadlining at the same time, hence the lack of posts. This is a quick post which is deliberately trainspotting detail so no critiques I’m ignoring the big issues. Koos notes that: “January till November 2014 the FRBNY was drained for 166 tonnes, if we subtract 123 tonnes The Netherlands got out that leaves 43 tonnes for Germany. The fact Germany claims to have repatriated 85 tonnes from New York in 2014 means they must have pulled 42 tonnes from the Manhattan vaults in December. By the end of this month (January 2015) the FRBNY will release the foreign deposit data of December and we’ll see if the numbers match.” So given the data from FRBNY, how can we construct 123t and 43t (or 85t for the year). I found it interesting that in Koos table 5.16t is repeated three times, that the Feb 2014 10.31t is basically double 5.16t and that the Aug 2014 15.47 is basically 3 times 5.16t. So working from this I get the following breakdown of the FRBNY withdrawals. I cannot find any other way to get 123t and 85t. I find it very interesting that Nov 2014’s 47.15t less 5.16t exactly equals the Oct 2014 41.99t and the balancing shipment for Germany for Dec 2014 has to be 41.99t. This cannot be coincidental. Issues:
- Is it possible given the somewhat random nature of 400oz bars (assuming that is what Germany and Netherlands are getting) that every shipment exactly equals 5.16t or multiples thereof? (I note that the figures are rounded to 2 decimals, so there could be some small variance if it was shown to 3 decimals).
- 5.16t means over 400 bars that every bar is overweight. I haven’t had time to check the US Mint bar list (see here and here) to see whether their distributions shows this tendency to overweight.
- Maybe the coin melt or whatever non standard bars Germany and Netherlands are getting are exact weight bars, hence the identical shipment weights?
- If Germany has been doing 5t every month or so, why the rush to do 42t in December? Would it have not been easier to just do a few 10t months and spread the work out.
- Note that in the Bundesbank release they say that “As soon as the gold was removed from the warehouse locations abroad, Bundesbank employees cross-checked the lists of bars belonging to the Bundesbank against the information on the bars removed” so that is a lot of work for December – 3360 bars to check – rather than just 400 or 800 bars per month.
- Why would the need the expertise of the BIS?
- Why do you need to do a “spot check” if Bundesbank employees are cross-checking every bar anyway.
- What was the “spot check” – given point above it isn’t a check of the weight and bar number on the bars to the bar list as that is already being done.
- It can’t be an assay check as they would have said that explicitly and in any case if anyone should help with that it should be someone from the refinery doing the reprocessing, not the BIS.
- All I can think is it was weighing the bars (that weren’t being reprocessed) on a scale to check the weight was correct to the bar or bar list. Do you really need the BIS to help with that?
I’ll just reiterate what I said on 20 January 2014 and 21 January 2014, it is all one big central banking club and as Jim Rickards said, it is all just a “political sop to agitation in Germany’s parliament” and there isn’t any concern on Germany’s part as to whether the US has their gold, and if there is, they can’t be seen to be concerned, lest the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence be questioned (even more so after SNB dropped its peg).