More “Boots On The Ground” Data – AND A Modest Proposal

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics

Larry Yun is the Chief Slime-ball Economist of the National Association of Realtors.  And the NAR represents whom? Right, real estate brokers. It’s Larry’s job to manufacture the snake oil that realtors use to sell homes. He doesn’t care about the buyer. He cares about generating commissions for the buyer’s broker. Ditto for the seller/seller’s broker. The NAR is funded – and therefore Larry’s compensation is funded – by fees paid by all the members of the NAR. The members are realty companies. Get it? See how this works?

“Oh, well the chief economist of the National Realtors Association said that housing market is poised to go higher this year and now’s a great time to buy.” LOL – it’s always a great time buy if you’re a house broker.   But Larry has no clue what’s going on with housing at the “ground level.”  He wouldn’t know “boots-on-the-ground” data if it kicked him in the ass.

In fact, my modest proposal is an invitation to Larry for an open debate on the health of the housing market via Skype that can be recorded and distributed on the ‘net.  Maybe I can confront him directly about how they collect their data and what goes into the “seasonal adjustments.”

Interestingly, I received more “boots on the ground” observations from around the country.   Recall that I’ve suggested that the upper end of the housing market is becoming flooded with homes and that the effect would be a top-down compression of prices and volume.   A reader posted this comment last night:

Another geographical example of what you are explaining [regarding the upper end of the market].  In the Northern suburbs of Chicago, a realtor friend of my wife has been selling homes in the area for a long time. She told us this past weekend that something is going on. She sells $1mm+ homes and said that her listings since July 2014 have not even been getting foot traffic. The perspective buyers that do come for showings want to know if the sellers will come down as much as 20-30%! I guess we are beginning to see that even the so called “wealthy” are holding their money a lot tighter now.

Heh heh heh…what’s funny about that is that by the time the sellers drop their price 20-30%, the prospective buyers will have disappeared because they’ll sense that all the sellers are dropping their trousers.  The real estate market in the modern fiat currency, debt-fueled system tends to operated on momentum.   The price/volume forces are driven to extremes in either direction.  We are about to see the completely artificial intervention momentum of the last three years rip in reverse.   You heard it here first.

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