Are We Really Staring At Nuclear Armageddon? And What Is Going On With Major Markets?
Are We Really Staring At Nuclear Armageddon? And What Is Going On With Major Markets? from King World News
On the heels of the Dow tumbling on fears of war with North Korea, one of the greats in the business just released this fantastic piece which covers the all-important question, are we really staring at nuclear Armageddon? And what the heck is going on with the major markets?
No Nuclear Armageddon For Now
By Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James
August 12 (King World News) – So I have been in Boston most of this week speaking at events for our financial advisors, visiting our retail offices, and seeing portfolio managers (PMs). Yesterday (Thursday), I spoke at Cantella’s National Conference (Cantella uses Raymond James as its platform) to a few hundred advisors, and then spent the rest of the day at Fidelity seeing PMs. Much to my surprise, I ran into my friend Tony Dwyer, one of the brightest minds on Wall Street, and a real gentleman. On August 7, 2017, Tony scribed a report that began with the question “How will we know when to expect ‘the’ top?” Asked and answered, Tony went on to write:
“With such low volatility, close proximity to record highs, and likelihood for pause in the upside, there is much discussion about ‘the’ market peak and bubbles. Indeed, while there are nasty corrections every cycle, THE market top is identified by close proximity to recession. Importantly, the market makes a cycle peak on average 7.2 months prior to recession, so unless the synchronized global recovery and domestic re-acceleration suddenly stops, we are still years away from recession.”
The report then described three credit-based indictors he uses to gauge the possibility of a recession and that for the past 50 years every recession has been proceeded by an inversion of the yield curve (short interest rates rise above long rates). None of these are even close to suggesting a recession; yet given the recent stock market weakness “recession” is on the lips of a lot of folks…