How To Prepare For A Hurricane
Beyond Just Flashlights And Batteries
How often have you heard this ‘typical’ recommendation (from ‘.gov’)?
For emergency preparedness keep a disaster supply kit containing 72 hours of food & water, a flashlight with extra batteries, a battery powered radio, and a First Aid Kit.
While those preps are simply logical, it seems ridiculous to even have to suggest them (who doesn’t already have a flashlight in their home?). What’s worse, it may be portrayed that these ordinary preps are adequate to weather the storm (hurricane?)! Really?
Here are a few recommendations to help make better decisions and judgements during a time when there’s a hurricane in the forecast:
Hurricane Spaghetti Models
Know the forecast. The number one thing to do while preparing for a hurricane is to know the forecast. You may have seen this before while watching a hurricane forecast or update – the so called ‘spaghetti’ hurricane model tracks:
Each one of the ‘spaghetti noodles’ represents one of the global forecast models. Sometimes a model will include a dark black ‘average’ plot for all of the forecast tracks for the hurricane. These models clearly indicate the possibilities or likelihoods of where the hurricane is going. In total they comprise a fairly accurate accurate representation of future reality. They become a bit less accurate the further out in time for the prediction period.
You can find these spaghetti plots/charts/models by searching the web.
One site that I found for the latest:
Note: There is also a commonly seen ‘cone projection’ which is often fairly wide. This is a ‘dumbed-down’ visualization often used in forecasts to the public. I like the ‘spaghetti’ better…
With this knowledge in hand, you will have a better idea where the upcoming hurricane might (probably) go, and whether or not you might be in the path or nearby…