Greenspan: The Weak Demand Feels Like A Depression
by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics
In fact, effective demand is extraordinarily weak…”The way I measure it, it’s probably tantamount to what we saw in the later stages of the Great Depression. – Alan Greenspan on CNBC (interview link)
I have been suggesting for quite some time now that the underlying demand in this country is far weaker than is represented by the “seasonally adjusted, annualized rate” statistical vomit that the Government and industry marketing associations throw in our face on a daily basis.
In fact, I suggested in late November that the crashing price of oil was likely the “black swan” that no one saw coming (link) – not one single Wall Street analyst was forecasting a decline in the price of oil. I further surmised that the crashing price of oil was primarily a result of extraordinarily weak demand not just globally but specifically and especially here in the U.S. Subsequent reports for December and January retail sales showing almost 1% declines in each month further validated my analysis.
Retail sales are rarely negative. A negative nominal retail sales number means unit sales declined. The even more negative inflation-adjusted “real” retail sales would indicate a serious decline in unit volume sales. It means the average consumer is basically “dead.” In this article on Seeking Alpha I go into further detail which shows how and why I know that the U.S. economy is on the verge of a “cliff dive:” U.S. economy/cliff’s edge link.
You know the saying, you can lead a horse to water…AMZN is going to be one of the more epic stock crashes when reality grips the market. AMZN’s operating income margin has been declining toward zero since 2004. I show why in my report. AMZN’s operating income was almost zero in 2014. I show why in my report. As AMZN’s sales growth rate declines, AMZN will become increasingly squeezed for cash – I show why in my report. If you play the short-side of this stock intelligently and with discipline, you can make a lot of money shorting AMZN. My report also has ideas for trade position management and the use of options to short the stock and manage risk: AMAZON.CON
The quality of your content is incredible. Your work shows not only why AMZN will eventually hit the wall, but it shows that the fraudulence embedded in our financial system runs all the way up to the highest levels – in this case FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) and the SEC. Your work shows in detail how the Amazon Ponzi scheme is constructed right in front our eyes and everyone who owns the stock is clueless. It’s the best $25 I’ve ever spent on financial research…Scott in Arizona