Gold Made it Cycle Inversion – It is What it Is
by Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics
QUESTION: I do not know what is the accuracy of your model for the long term. If I’m correct, your model functions “like” the weather forecasting models, every new information is integrated to refine the results.
If we see a rise of 3rd parties in 2016, we can assume the masses still have confidence in the system and have a little hope for change, and that will not last for ever
ANSWER: Strangely enough, the longer-term tends to be fixed. It is precisely opposite of what you surmise. It is the short-term that tends to be more noise so any refining unfolds in the short-term of the spectrum for the trend is the trend. It really does not matter if you peak on some reaction rally one week or the next. It is still just a counter-trend reaction. Hence the long-term does not change. This is actually proof that those claiming gold is systemically manipulated are completely wrong. Absolutely NOTHING can be manipulated against the trend. When there was the silver manipulation, we came out and warned they were going to take silver to $7 in 3 months and then crash it. That was the short-term which did not change the long-term for silver then resumed the decline and made new lows. Of course to the promoters, nothing to the upside is a manipulation, only to the downside. This is why I do not trust them for they seem to be talking the markets up and then claim they would be correct except for the manipulation.
Gold has completed its cycle inversion. It bottomed in 1985 and then peaked in 1987 with the ECM. Ever since, it had to invert relative to the ECM as we moved into a Private Wave. The fact that we achieved the high in 2011 with the low in the ECM demonstrates that gold is starting to shape up as the hedge against government. Gold’s rally took off only after the ECM turned down from 2007. Of course you has the promoters touting QE1-3 confusing everyone for gold rallied ONLY because people questioned the survival of the system including banks. It had absolutely nothing to do with money supply, no gold in Fort Knox, manipulations, or how trading gold in Shanghai would be “real” and the NY COMEX “paper” world would collapse. Every possible bullshit story came rolling out and buried a lot of people with significant financial losses. Had they been stock brokers putting out that unsupported claims, they would have gone to prison for 20 years for fraud. It is a wonder there is not some class-action suit against some of these huxters.
Gold is now perfectly in line with the ECM so far and that means it should have declined into 2015.75. It should turn up ONLY as people begin to question government not QE4-6. Gold is the hedge against government – not changes in money supply that fail to relate to inflation.
The goldbugs just bad mouth me all the time because to them if something does not go up every day there is some dark sinister force which attacks only them. They are not traders for the will never say sell or take a profit. They distort standard trading against clients that the bankers do against everyone in every market as perpetual systemic manipulation to keep gold down otherwise it would be anywhere from $10,000 to $50,000 depending on which promoter you listen to.
What was the last one? Gold would rise to $10,000 by the end of 2014 in three months? You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you cannot turn all of society into fools. Sooner or later, people wake up. They hurt a lot of people with this kind of nonsense and they turn serious people off for their foolishness. To me, they whip everyone up into buying so the banks can sell to them. Then they say they are not wrong its manipulation so buy more. Then why trade something that can never move higher?
It seems like someone is being paid under the table to put out bogus research just as the bankers got caught on the DOT.COM bubble in 2003. There is something just not right. We never sell client names and we do not send spam trying to sell dreams and we are not like the Global Warming people crying we have to save something so donate funds to us to make the world better.
It is what it is. When gold turns on our models, then real investors will come back because they also know we will say sell. This is not about proving some theory that does not stand the test of time. This is about surviving what is coming. To buy something or sell something for the wrong reason destroys confidence and without that, nobody buys. Those who really believe in gold should be mad as hell about these people who reduce the credibility of the precious metals in the eyes of the majority.